2023-04-12 06:05:03
Morning Comments
Indian markets could open flat to mildly higher, in line with mixed Asian markets today and mixed US markets on Tuesday.…U.S. stock indexes closed mostly lower on Tuesday as investors cautiously looked ahead to March inflation data due Wednesday that could help determine the Federal Reserve’s next interest-rate move. Corporate earnings reporting season also is set to kick off in earnest on Friday.
The March CPI reading from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, US, which tracks changes in the prices paid by consumers for goods and services, is expected to show a 5.1% rise from a year earlier, slowing from a 6% year-over-year rise in the previous month, according to a survey of economists by Dow Jones.
Meanwhile, the IMF said recent stress in the banking sector could reduce the ability of U.S. banks to lend over the next year, and materially lower U.S. economic growth. The IMF estimated that lending capacity in the U.S. could fall by almost 1% in the coming year. That would reduce U.S. real gross domestic product by 44 basis points over that time frame, all else being equal, the IMF said.
Futures show a 71.8% likelihood that the Fed will raise rates by 25 basis points to a range of 5.0%-5.25% when policymakers conclude a two-day meeting on May 3, CME Group's FedWatch tool shows.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund trimmed its global growth forecasts citing the recent banking sector turmoil and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its GDP growth forecast for India for the financial year 2023-24 by 20 basis points to 5.9 percent and by 50 bps to 6.3% for the next year. The cut was part of a series of revisions by the IMF, which now sees the world economy growing by 2.8 percent in 2023 and 3 percent in 2024, down 10 basis points each from the January forecasts.
India's headline retail inflation is expected to have dropped to a 15-month low in March thanks to a favourable base. According to a Moneycontrol survey of 17 economists, Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation likely fell sharply to 5.7 percent last month from 6.44 percent in February. India’s industrial output is expected to grow by 5.8 percent, the highest in three months. In January, industrial production had risen by 5.2 percent.
TCS will announce its Q4 numbers on April 12.
Asian stocks advanced ahead of US inflation data that may signal whether the Federal Reserve will keep raising interest rates.
Nifty rose for the seventh consecutive session on April 11 helped by positive global cues. At close Nifty was up 0.56% or 98.3 points at 17722.3. Nifty overcame the hesitation seen on the previous day and marched ahead. It could now stay in the 17639-17800 band in the near term waiting for economic data like India CPI and IIP and US CPI (due April 12) for further triggers.
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