2022-03-10 20:18:54
How To Choose Quality Stocks for Long Term Investment. 1. S E C T O R•If the industry is cool and has room to grow, I really get attracted to it.
•I look for only the evergreen Industry.
•Evergreen Industry:
People will keep consuming the Products of such industries even though the economy collapses.
2. BUSINESS MODEL• The Business must be easy to understand. Simple Business creates wonder in the economy
• It should belong to the Circle of your competence
• It should not be an acquisition machine
*P.S–
Read Annual Reports- specially
Management and discussion
Section
3. M A N A G E M E N T•Things to know–
•CSR activity
•Dividend issue
•No pledged Shares
•High holdings of the promoters
•Share buyback= Good sign
•1-2 % > share dilution
•Admit mistakes
4. PROFITABILITY FOR 10 YEARS
•Look For Fundamentally Strong Companies
•A Company with a strong should have such profitability ratios
-Gross margin <50%
-Operating profit <27%
-Operating/Interest >10%
-Profit Margin <15%
-Operating Cashflow/profit<85%
-ROE <20
-ROCE <25
-Debt-Equity >1
-Inventory turn over Ratio <4
-Asset turn over Ratio <1
-current ratio <1
-Quick ratio <1
-Return on Asset Ratio <10
-Financial leverage >2.1
-Free cashflow/EV=5 %
-Interest coverage <50
-Constant EPS Growth
-Debtor days >35-45
-Cash conversion cycle >37
5. SWOT ANALYSISS - Strength
W - Weakness
O - Opportunities
T - Threats
This Analysis helps me a lot to understand the economy of the companies.
6. VALUATION•Method A:
-P/S >1.5
-P/B >5 (based on ROE)
-EV /EBITDA >15
-DCF Method
-PEG Ratio >1.5
-Historical PE
•Method B
{E × ( 8.5 + 2G)× 4.4} ÷10yrs Average Bond Yeild
*P.S
E = Earning
G = Growth
•Method C
Market cap ÷ Free cash flow
= Less than 6 is Good.
•Method D
7 years of EPS ÷ 7 = X
Then, X × 25
For Example:
38+40+41+42+43+45+47=296
296÷7 =42.28
42.28×25= 1057
Share price must be around 1057
•Method E:
Intrinsic value =
Present value of residual value + present value of Discount Rate + Cash & Equity - Debt
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