2022-05-12 19:44:24
- UST has a circulating supply of 12.12B
- It has a market cap of $7.4B
- To restore peg 12.12B - 7.4B = 4.72B of UST needs to be burned
- Terra validators have overwhelmingly agreed that this is what must be done, UST must be burned and peg must be restored
- To burn UST (and restore peg), you need to mint new LUNA
- To burn 1 UST you need to mint $1.00 worth of LUNA
- Let's do some simple math
- Say we can burn all the excess UST all at once right now, and restore peg
- To burn this 4.7B of UST we would need to mint $4.7B worth of LUNA
- At the current price of LUNA ($0.03), this means we would have to mint ~156B LUNA
- In this scenario, the circulating supply of LUNA would increase from 3.5B to ~160B (increase 45x)
- The price of LUNA will decrease to ~$0.0006
- Now you could in theory begin to slowly burn down that 160B circulating supply of LUNA (does this sound impossible and like a terrible investment? IT SHOULD SOUND IMPOSSIBLE AND LIKE A TERRIBLE INVESTMENT)
- The scenario described above is a made up fantasy and is not possible
- What's really going to happen is actually infinitely worse
- First problem: You can't burn all 4.7B UST at once because you can't mint 156B LUNA at once
- There is a limit on how much LUNA can be minted in one day
- Right now, they are voting to increase the limit
- This leads us to problem #2
- Second problem: As you mint LUNA, the price of LUNA goes down (LUNA is diluted), which means to burn more UST, you need to mint even more LUNA, until you descend into a vicious feedback loop of all out LUNA minting madness
- This is referred to by validators and people who understand the protocol as the "death spiral"
- Right now you can burn $1B UST by minting 33B LUNA
- The circulating supply of LUNA goes from 3.5B to 38.5B
- The price of LUNA is now 0.0027
- You then burn your next $1B UST by minting 1,000,000,000/0.0027 = 370B LUNA
- You burned your first $1B UST by minting 33B LUNA. The next $1B UST by minting 370B LUNA
- The next $1B UST would take trillions and trillions of LUNA
- I used $1B chunks just as an example
- Obviously the size of the burns would be much smaller as it depends on UST holders' bags
- The point is, LUNA can't recover unless they just decide to fundamentally change how the protocol works, which would result in Do Kwan and everybody else on the project being instantly indicted for fraud
- They aren't gonna go to prison to save your bags
- LUNA is going to $0. You were warned.
788 viewsRaj, 16:44
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