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2021-04-19 08:19:11 The Hindu Editorial with Vocab - 19th April

Normal is good: On IMD monsoon forecast

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a ‘normal’ monsoon for this year. In the agency’s parlance, normal implies that the country will get 96% to 104% of the 88 cm that it gets from June-September. This quantity, called the Long Period Average (LPA), is a mean of monsoon rainfall from 1961-2010. The IMD, for over 20 years now, follows a two-stage monsoon forecast system. After the prognosis in April, it gives an updated estimate in late May or early June. This includes an estimate of how much rain is likely in: northwest India, northeast India, central India and southern peninsula. Numbers are also given for July and August, which see two-thirds of the monsoon rains and are the most important months for sowing. This year, there will be forecasts for June and September too, to be given in May and August, respectively. Historically, predicting rain for June and September is challenging as it corresponds to the monsoon’s entry and exit. There will also be forecasts for what is called the monsoon core zone, which represents most of the rainfed agriculture region in the country. All of these updates are an extension of the IMD’s increasing reliance on dynamical monsoon models. Unlike the traditional statistical models, which are based on a fixed set of meteorological variables that have historically been correlated with variations in monsoon rainfall, the dynamical models generate forecasts based on evolving weather patterns. The IMD has been testing such models for many years but it is only in the last few years that it is finding use for practical weather forecasts.

A ‘normal’ monsoon forecast this year is primarily predicated on ‘neutral’ surface temperatures in the Central Equatorial Pacific. In 2019 and 2020, the IMD forecast normal rains but India ended up with 110% and 109% of the LPA. This year, a warming El Niño is unlikely, and another ocean parameter closer home, the Indian Ocean Dipole, too is expected to be unfavourable for excess rains and so the IMD seems more confident that its calculations are not going to be as wrong. However, the models already show a good chance of ‘above normal’ rain in central and southern India. While forecasts are a critical aspect of India’s disaster preparedness, there should also be more focus on incorporating these forecasts down to municipal and block-level planning. The monsoon forecasts were primarily evolved to assist with agriculture and it is only now getting more urban-focused because of the natural disasters that accompany even ‘normal’ monsoons. Several business and service sector industries need weather products and in terms of science and infrastructure, few have the resources the IMD has. The IMD must continue to aid on all these fronts.

CREDIT SOURCE :- The Hindu
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1. Parlance (N)- a way of speaking or using words.

2. Prognosis (N)- a forecast of the likely outcome of a situation. पूर्वानुमान

3. Rainfed (Adj)- relating to agriculture that depends on rainfall. वर्षा आधारित

4. Extension (N)- an extra period of time that you are allowed for something (विशेष प्रयोजन से समयवृद्धि)

5. Reliance (N)- dependence on or trust in someone or something.

6. Forecasts (N)- a calculation or estimate of future events, especially coming weather or a financial trend. पूर्वानुमान

7. End Up (Phrasal Verb)- to finally be in a particular place or situation.

8. Incorporate (V)- to make something a part of something else; to have something as a part

9. Accompany (V)- to go together with somebody/something(किसी के साथ-साथ जाना)

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2021-04-17 06:08:12
11. Grievance (N)- something that you think is unfair and that you want to complain or protest about (शिकायत; व्‍यथा)

12. Splinter (V)- (of a group or organization) separate into smaller units, typically as a result of disagreement.

13. Faction (N)- a small group of people within a larger one whose members have some different aims and beliefs to those of the larger group (बड़े दल के भीतर छोटा दल जिसके उद्देश्‍य और विचार बड़े दल से कुछ अलग होते हैं; गुट)

14. Agility (N)- the ability to think quickly and clearly:

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2021-04-17 06:08:11 The Hindu Editorial with Vocab - 17th April

Steep climb: On BJP and the Darjeeling hills

The three seats of Darjeeling, Kalimpong and Kurseong in the Darjeeling hills of West Bengal may count for little numerically in the State Assembly of 294 members, but their political significance is a different story. The demand for a separate Gorkhaland State in the hills has singularly driven politics among the Gorkha population for more than three decades now. The agitation has been often violent. In 2017, during the last eruption of violence, the hills were in blockade for 104 days and several people were killed. The BJP’s close involvement with Gorkha politics suggests that it has certain plans for the region, which could have ripples in other parts of the country where demands for autonomy or separate States exist. It was in Darjeeling that the BJP got its foothold into West Bengal. From 2009 to 2019, the region sent a BJP member to the Lok Sabha. The BJP’s traditional position in favour of smaller States created an affinity for it, but more importantly, the fact that it had little stake in West Bengal politics in general allowed it to be experimental here. Though it never declared in clear terms its support for a separate State, by maintaining an ambiguous stance, it became acceptable to an expanding segment of the hill population. In 2014, then BJP prime ministerial nominee Narendra Modi said he shared the dreams of the Gorkhas, and the BJP later on shifted to a promise of ‘permanent political solution’. Home Minister Amit Shah campaigned in the hills and reiterated the promise. Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee stayed away from campaigning, avoiding the contentious question.

The politics in the hills is framed in antagonistic terms with the Bengali population in the plains. Any concession to the Gorkhas, let alone a separate State, can be viewed unsympathetically by the rest of the population. The two experiments in the past of allowing autonomy to the region under the Darjeeling Gorkha Hill Council from 1988-2012, and the Gorkhaland Territorial Administration established in 2012, more than mitigating the grievance of the Gorkhas, splintered their politics. The Gorkha Janmukti Morcha which dominated politics in the region is divided into two factions — one led by its founder Bimal Gurung and other by Binay Tamang and Anit Thapa. Ms. Banerjee’s TMC is said to be in alliance with both factions, which means little more than creating confusion. The Gorkha National Liberation Front (GNLF), the party set up by Subhas Ghising who started the agitation, is an ally of the BJP. The experiments of alliances and self-governance led to an erosion of trust in local leaders. While Gorkha politics view Bengali leaders of all parties with suspicion, they have bought into the nationalist politics of the BJP to some extent. The BJP has emerged as a serious player in West Bengal and will remain so in the near future. Darjeeling will test its agility and vision, certainly for the State, but probably beyond its borders too.

CREDIT SOURCE:- The Hindu
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1. Agitation (N)- the situation in which people protest or argue, especially in public, in order to achieve a particular type of change:

2. Eruption (N)- a sudden violent spontaneous occurrence (usually of some undesirable condition).

3. Blockade (N)- an act or means of sealing off a place to prevent goods or people from entering or leaving. नाकाबंदी

4. Ripples (N)- a sudden and adverse reaction.

5. Foothold (N)- a secure position from which further progress may be made.

6. Affinity (N)- a natural understanding and sympathy between people. मिलनसारिता

7. Stance (N)- the opinions that somebody expresses publicly about something

8. Reiterate (v)- to repeat an opinion, statement, etc. that has already been said to make the meaning clear or to emphasize it

9. Antagonistic (Adj)- showing or feeling active opposition or hostility towards someone or something. विरोधी

10. Autonomy (N)- freedom to determine one's own actions and behaviour. स्वत्व अधिकार ओपन / कमेंट